Monday, January 30, 2012

Golf Ramblings, PGA Tour Predictions (Rnd 1)

Golf is in decline apparently. Earlier in the week we had a number of statistics that fewer women were taking up the game, fewer kids were growing up playing golf. In my view it’s tragic that such a great game is being played by fewer and fewer people. But as Jack Nicklaus states, it’s not a PGA Tour problem, but an all of us problem (I’m probably paraphrasing, the sentiment remains).

My wife is an interesting case study in what I’m speaking about. Last year she got her first set of clubs prior to even hitting a single shot. This on the back of my suggestion that it was a great way for us to spend time together (even though selfishly I probably just wanted to spend more time on the course without having to justify it). We both signed up for lessons, and joined a golf club. Time and time again, it was hard to understand for me why she continued to endure this frustrating game. No doubt it has to do with her competitive nature. However, the answer is probably far simpler.

When I was young, really young in fact, I used to steal my dad’s clubs when he was at work and go out in the backyard and take cuts. It happened so frequently that we had a bald square in the backyard where my brother and I had hit fat shots and the grass had become non-existent. Finally, my dad took a Ram 5 wood (it was a wood alright, complete with screws and polished wood) and cut the shaft so that it was an appropriate height. Somewhere around that time I found, or he acquired a driver that must have been short enough for me to hit. Then like a ball rolling down the hill and gradually picking up speed, I got my first set of irons at Easter. Driver, check. Fairway wood, check. Irons, check. Flat iron? Uh oh, I didn’t have a putter yet; no matter, shortly thereafter I stole my dad’s. Back in those days putters were simple, shaft and blade, that’s all. My first official had a brown grip and was a copper finish. Not sure what my dad did after I ‘acquired’ that putter, maybe we shared it. I think than I got a bike as well that Easter, what’s important here is that I don’t remember a single fact about the bike that I got.

From there, I bounced around continuing to hit balls in the backyard, Cooke Rec, and Heritage Elementary. I don’t quite recall when my brother and I were allowed membership into the Men’s Club, but at some point it became a regular occurrence that my brother, my Uncle Craig and my dad played at Minerva and Arrowhead. It was around this point that it became a foregone conclusion that I’d golf on a regular basis. I’d never seen anything like it, and likely never will. My Uncle regularly put drives into absolute orbit; I’ve never seen anyone hit a ball as far as my Uncle. And some 20 years later, my dad is still the deadliest short game player I’ve ever seen. They can keep Seve and his play around the green, my dad is an absolute magician playing bump and run with a 7 iron.

So the simple answer is that my wife endures continuing to play, and getting better because she wants to see and be a part of what I speak about in the previous two paragraphs. It’s that simple. That’s how the game get’s its players back.

And what a great time for people to be watching the PGA, LPGA and European Tours. I realize that for a good many years (and it’s still not over I don’t believe) that Tiger was the only show in town. There aren’t just stars on tour right now, there are superstars. What’s more, these superstars are just about in equal numbers between Europe, the USA, and Australia/Asian region. This will make for dramatic Ryder and President’s Cups over the next decade.

Because The Windup Spot tends to focus on handicapping, and making its readers money, I’ll speak briefly about some things that I like this season.

World Match Play: You can never go wrong with putting money on Ian Poulter and Luke Donald in match play events. Depending on what the odds look like I may consider putting a small bit on Sergio Garcia. If I was going to rate it, I’d put 3 units on Donald, 2 units on Poulter, 1 on Garcia, and 1 on XXX. I’m reserving XXX until after this weekend so I can see which American has the hot hand. Likely suspects will probably be Nick Watney, Webb Simpson, Bill Haas, Steve Stricker, Bubba Watson, and Dustin Johnson. Like every year, I’ll break down the entire bracket. For me, this is the Super Bowl of golf handicapping. We’ll see what the pairings are after this weekend.

Majors: In no particular order I like Alvaro Quiros, Adam Scott, Luke Donald, and Sergio Garcia. Obviously, keeping a close eye on Tiger Woods, who will be a perennial favorite at Augusta. Given how many fairways he missed in Abu Dhabi it’s not looking good for him at the US Open. It is Tiger however, which means he’ll always be in with a shout. Without question, I’ll be rooting most for Ian Poulter at Augusta. Fans of Ian always get 1 or 2 great rounds. Will this be the year he finally strings together 4 complete rounds? I’d love to see the Green Jacket matched up with a pair of tartans.

Picks for Value: Anytime you can get Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, or Steve Stricker at or above 20-1 it’s worth a punt. Steve Stricker is Steady Eddie and never tends to play himself too far out of contention. Rickie Fowler is going to start winning, it’s just a question of when. I don’t like that he just got brand new clubs, so I’ll not be wagering on him for another month or two. Bubba, well he’s Bubba. Gifted, but as a handicapper makes me uncomfortable that every time he misses a putt he shouts at himself. From a temperament standpoint, not a great risk. However, Bubba is a good person, and great things happen to people who understand how to lean on faith. Like Rickie, he’s going to be a consistent winner just a question of when, not if.

Rory: Not sure why, but it just feels like this is going to be a year where he wins a ton of top 5s. The problem with Rory is that no matter what tourney he plays in he’ll be at or around 5/2. At those odds, there isn’t value in picking him unless you’re wagering a huge amount.

Ryder Cup: I predict a riot.

Sergio: What a comeback, will reach the penultimate conclusion when/if he wins a major this year. I’ve lost a bundle on Sergio over the years; I finally start getting paid back this year. Only question left in my mind is whether he switches putting grips every three tournaments. If we’re back to that, I’ll be worried. I’m happy for Sergio however; he’s shown fortitude in getting back to being a contender. One of my all time favorite players.