Monday, December 5, 2011

Investing, Introductory Statement

On any given week, between my professional and domestic work I’m allocated at or around 150%. While that is true, I care about my readers/followers here at this blog and on Face Book and Twitter. Because of that, you Uncle Zak has decided to help folks out with what I have determined are a generational opportunity.

Let me get this out of the way, just in case there are legal concerns about what I’m about to say. From an early age, I have studied investing, banking and macroeconomics. That said I’m by no means a professional. I do around 20 hours research a week on investing, and try to pay as close attention as I can. I’ve been doing around this much research for the last 20 years or so; yes at age 13 I started reading the Wall Street Journal. That said I have no professional training.

Here is some advice from Uncle Zak:

The clock is ticking, and the game will in all likelihood closes in November of 2012. I’ll stay away from the politics of that statement.

This advice is geared at folks that have at a minimum 5 to 10 years before they need to see the profit from their investments. I think it’s fair to say that this advice will probably see a 10% return on investment.

Building the Portfolio

50% stable equities played long
30% stable equities played short
20% cash transactions

Stable Longs

1) I really like household items here. What does that include? PepsiCo, Coca Cola, General Mills, Kraft; items such as these. These are staples here in the US, and each of them provides you a dividend.
2) Domestic Energy. I love, LOVE, anything crude or nat gas related to the Dakotas or in the North East. If it is an energy partner that is domestic such as Continental Resource Group, or Chesapeake; I’m in. Some of these however do not pay a dividend; I always prefer a dividend but the rate of growth on some of the non-dividend paying firms is just too great to ignore.
3) Gold and Silver under certain conditions. If you can get in on gold at or around $1600 an ounce, or Silver at or around $32 an ounce; I like those plays.

Stable Shorts

1) Technology firms that are engaged in cloud development. As time moves forward virtual desktops and cloud file storage are going to be bread and butter of technology. Very few firms have committed to this plan yet because of the conversion expense. Once the US gets things turned around I love firms that offer these services. I’d be looking at an Oracle or an Auto Desk here.
2) Transportation firms. As the economy expands so will the logistics sector. I like Norfolk Southern if it gets to within 20% of its 52 week low, as well as trucking firm Old Dominion.

Cash

1) Holdings in dollars
2) The Euro at or around $1.31

So there you have it in short what I’m looking at right now in the months leading up to November 2012. Some omissions worth noting:

1) Financial Services. Not putting anything here at the moment. However, these are at historic lows. Even if these are insulated from Europe’s economic situation, it won’t matter. Bad news from Europe means that these will go lower than they already are.
2) Retail. See above.

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